#Gate广场五月交易分享

#山寨币资金回流

The altcoin season has not arrived yet; keep a close eye on Bitcoin.

Today’s overall crypto market is strengthening, and altcoins are also rebounding. The PayFi sector leads the gains, but Little Boss believes now is not the time to operate altcoins. When Bitcoin stabilizes above the middle Bollinger Band on the weekly chart and a new main upward wave may begin, trading mainstream coins (Bitcoin, Ethereum) is the safest strategy.

On the news front, US-Iran negotiations have hit a deadlock. Trump said Iran’s plan is “completely unacceptable.” This morning’s drop in Bitcoin can be seen as a reaction to the news, but after news of Trump’s visit to China broke, the price quickly rebounded. Regarding the progress of US-Iran talks, Little Boss has mentioned before that both sides are currently just talking and negotiating, constantly harvesting retail investors in the financial markets through news. As this “tricky operation” becomes normalized, market reactions to news will become increasingly “dull.” Traders can also perform swing trading based on news, selling high and buying low, taking advantage of price surges on good news to sell and short, and bottom-fishing on bad news to go long.

Trump’s visit to China is a moderate positive, expected to lead to negotiations on tariffs, Iran issues, AI, and key mineral cooperation. If the talks go smoothly, significant impacts are expected in the following areas:

‌Tariff negotiations‌

The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that Trump’s previous tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are invalid (credible source), and the newly implemented 10% global tariffs face legal challenges (credible source). If this meeting results in a phased trade truce (such as extending tariff exemptions), it will directly benefit the following sectors:

‌Export-dependent Chinese stocks‌ (such as cross-border e-commerce, electronics manufacturing)

‌Global supply chain repair companies‌ (shipping, port logistics)

‌U.S. trade surplus industries‌ (home appliances, machinery equipment)

‌AI and key mineral cooperation‌

Negotiations on AI governance rules and strategic mineral supplies like rare earths (credible source) may lead to:

‌Computing infrastructure‌ (data centers, optical modules)

‌Mineral independence and control‌: breakthroughs in lithium extraction from salt lakes, rare earth permanent magnet technology companies

‌Regulatory AI industry chain‌: providers of federated learning, privacy computing technologies

Stock market structural opportunities:

‌Reevaluation of the tech growth track‌

If consensus is reached on AI regulation (such as avoiding technological decoupling), it will ease market concerns about tech hard forks. Coupled with domestic industrial enterprise profit growth reaching a 4-year high in January-February (credible source) and the CSI 300 dividend yield exceeding 3% (credible source), focus on:

‌AI application commercialization‌: multimodal large models, industrial software

‌Domestic semiconductor equipment‌: etching/deposition equipment manufacturers

‌Expected recovery of cyclical sectors‌

If a supply guarantee mechanism for key minerals is implemented, it will boost:

‌Rare metal mining‌ (lithium, cobalt, rare earths)

‌Battery recycling technology‌: urban mine development companies

Additionally, if both sides can achieve a “ceasefire” in the tariff war, it will greatly reduce the probability of “black swan” events in the crypto market, indirectly benefiting Bitcoin.

Is the altcoin season coming?

I think we still need to wait a bit. If you must participate, I suggest focusing on privacy coins and AI narrative tracks, as well as recently hot public chains like ZEC, TON, etc., which can be considered after a pullback. But everyone must be careful not to chase highs.

Should you chase the current market or lay low?

I believe the main focus now should be on Bitcoin and Ethereum. When there’s a negative correction, boldly buy the dip and go long. If you have no position, wait until the price stabilizes around $79,500–$80,000 before considering entering. For those already holding long positions, use $79,000 as a trailing stop-loss. It’s not advisable to chase high with heavy positions now. Finally, I wish everyone daily prosperity!