#山寨币资金回流 #Gate广场五月交易分享 Has the copycat season arrived? How to respond? Four practical suggestions

I. Impressive price gains, but for different reasons
This round of gains is not a uniform “broad rally,” but is driven by different fundamental catalysts.

On the SOL side, the spot ETF was officially launched in October 2025. Western Union and JPMorgan have successively chosen Solana as the stablecoin settlement layer. Pumpfun’s monthly fees reached as high as $70 million. On-chain ecosystem activity has fully rebounded, and TPS has returned to above 3000.
After SUI’s DeepBook prediction market platform Predict launched on May 9, the associated token DEEP’s daily trading volume surged 976%, drawing a large influx of speculative capital into the ecosystem. Coupled with the fact that 21Shares’ spot SUI ETF was listed on Nasdaq in February, institutional entry points are gradually being improved.
AAVE, meanwhile, benefited from the “Aave Will Win (AWW)” framework passed in April—100% of protocol product revenue is directed into the DAO treasury—and it launched the V4 version in March. The institutional RWA lending platform Horizon’s net deposits are nearing $550 million, with a clearly enhanced value-capture logic.

II. Copycat season index: early signals appear, but not yet confirmed
To judge whether the market has entered copycat season, the two most important indicators are the “Copycat Season Index” and Bitcoin dominance. Current data are as follows:

The data tells us plainly: this is a narrative-driven, selective rotation—not the kind of all-line broad rally copycat season like in 2021. If Bitcoin dominance is above 60%, it means institutional funds still hold Bitcoin as the core position. The Copycat Season Index at 35 is also far below the 75 confirmation threshold. However, historical data shows that after Bitcoin dominance peaks, rotation into copycat coins often begins within 1–2 quarters. This window is worth watching.

III. Where the cycle is right now: the warm-up stage

IV. How should retail investors respond? Four practical suggestions
1. Focus on narratives with fundamentals
Prioritize projects with real revenue, institutional partnerships, or ETF entry points (such as SOL, AAVE), rather than purely hype-driven targets. Narrative rotation is fast—chasing hot themes is not as effective as selecting market leaders.
2. Start with a light position and control total exposure
Before the Copycat Season Index exceeds 75, it’s recommended that copycat coin positions do not exceed 30% of your total crypto holdings. Enter using “small units,” keeping enough “ammunition” to wait for clearer signals.
3. Track changes in Bitcoin dominance
A drop in Bitcoin dominance from 60% to a fall below 58% is an initial signal that funds are starting to rotate into copycat coins. A drop below 50% may indicate the start of a full-blown copycat season.
4. Set take-profit and stop-loss levels in advance
Copycat seasons often “arrive fast and leave fast.” Before entering, set staged take-profit targets (for example, take half off when up 30%), and also define a clear stop-loss level to avoid emotional trading.

Positioning suggestion: Core positions (ETH/SOL/AAVE) should total 60–70% of the copycat portion, while satellite positions (SUI/PENDLE/HYPE) should be 30–40%. With the current Copycat Season Index only at 35, it’s recommended that overall copycat coin exposure not exceed 30–40% of total crypto assets, while keeping BTC as a core hedge against overall market risk.
All price targets come from public forecasts and do not constitute investment advice. Please assess your risk tolerance before entering.