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The Strait of Hormuz becomes highly volatile, future oil price scenario analysis

Trump outright rejects Iran's negotiation plan, calling it "completely unacceptable," Iran reiterates sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps states it will deploy light submarines, what will happen to oil prices next? Let’s look at the script from Little Wealth God.

💥 ‌Immediate nuclear explosion: The crazy logic behind a 3.5% single-day surge in oil prices‌

‌Night of digital horror‌

After Trump angrily denounced Iran's response as “completely unacceptable” on May 10:

▶ Brent crude‌ violently surged 3.05%‌, soaring to‌ $104.38 per barrel‌

▶ WTI crude‌ approaching the $99 mark‌

Market panic spreads:

“Traders curse while placing buy orders, gas station price signs are being updated overnight — tonight we are all oil hostages!”

‌Explosive trigger analysis‌

‌Strait throat locked down‌: The Strait of Hormuz accounts for 20% of global‌ oil transportation‌ (Data 3), a breakdown in negotiations means continued blockade

‌Ghosts of war reappear‌: Israeli Prime Minister vows “must physically remove Iran’s enriched uranium” (Data 6), shadow of warplanes looms over the Persian Gulf

🛳️ ‌Dominoes of the deadly route‌

‌First card: Global oil tanker exodus‌

21 US warships blockade the strait → 61 merchant ships reroute urgently (Data 9)

‌Shipping insurance premiums soar 300%‌: Oil tanker captains lament: “Transporting oil is like smuggling arms!”

‌Second card: Refinery shutdown crisis‌

Korea’s SK Energy‌ shuts down 30% of capacity‌: “Without Middle Eastern oil, the machines can only drink northwest wind”

European diesel futures‌ surge 18% in a week‌: Truck drivers strike collectively protesting high oil prices

‌Third card: Inflation demon unleashed‌

‌Oil prices → freight costs → price transmission chain‌:

Persian Gulf war clouds → Middle Eastern oil supply cut → Shanghai courier fees up 5 yuan → Pancakes with eggs cost 2 yuan more

⚔️ ‌Bull and bear killing game: Wall Street’s oil betting‌

‌Bear camp (led by Goldman Sachs)‌

Bottom card: US shale oil‌ urgently increases production by 900k barrels/day‌

Mocking: “Strait blockade? We have the Permian Basin printing press!”

‌Bull army (Saudi prince in command)‌

Killer move: OPEC+‌ extends production cuts until 2027‌

Declaration: “Every $1 increase in price, we give the people a gold toilet subsidy!”

‌Madness faction (retail investors’ suicide squad)‌

Crazy operations:

▶ Long crude oil futures + hoarding gas station discount coupons

▶ Bottom fishing Russian oil tanker stocks (with Arctic route concept)

🔮 ‌Three major future life-and-death scenarios‌

‌Scenario A: Maritime blockade nuclear explosion (60% probability)‌

Trump initiates naval blockade (Data 10) → oil prices‌ skyrocket to $140‌

‌Winner‌: Shale oil companies, Arctic oil tankers, solar panel manufacturers

‌Losers‌: Fuel vehicle owners, airlines, pancake vendors

‌Scenario B: Secret oil pipeline operation (40% probability)‌

Saudi Aramco activates‌ desert underground pipelines‌ → bypasses the strait directly supplying the Red Sea

Oil prices‌ fall back to $90, but pipeline security costs are passed on to consumers